Nigeria’s former president, Goodluck Jonathan, is reportedly gearing up for another presidential run in 2027, sparking debate about his eligibility. The 2018 constitutional amendment bars individuals sworn in twice from contesting for the presidency or governorship.
The Constitutional Amendment: A Contentious Issue
The constitutional amendment, specifically Sections 137(3) and 182(3), aims to prevent individuals from serving more than eight years in office. Senior lawyers argue that this provision does not apply retroactively to Jonathan, who served under the old constitutional dispensation. Mr. Dayo Akinlaja, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, asserts that Jonathan can still contest, citing the Doctrine of Necessity.
Lawyers Weigh In on Jonathan’s Eligibility
Some lawyers believe Jonathan’s eligibility remains unaffected by the amendment, while others argue otherwise. The consequence of contesting again would mean exceeding the maximum eight-year limit. Mr Johnmary Jideobi, a human rights lawyer, notes that Jonathan’s potential victory in 2027 could pose a legal challenge. Conversely, Mr Elekwachi Nnabuihe supports Jonathan’s eligibility, stating that the law does not have retroactive effect.
PDP’s Move to Woo Jonathan
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is actively courting Jonathan to contest the 2027 presidential election. Deputy National Publicity Secretary Mallam Ibrahim Abdullahi says the party’s move responds to growing calls from Nigerians. Furthermore, he asserts that the calls are from Nigerians who now believe Jonathan’s past administration was underappreciated. However, credible reports have it that former president Jonathan has shown interest and is laying down some strict conditions.
Jonathan’s Potential Candidacy: Implications and Reactions
If Jonathan decides to run, it could significantly alter the dynamics of the 2027 presidential poll. Some believe his candidacy would provide a strategic pathway for power to return to the north in 2031. Bauchi Governor Bala Mohammed has expressed support for Jonathan, stating he would not contest if the former president decides to run.
Key Players’ Stances on Jonathan’s Candidacy
Bode George, former Deputy National Chairman of the PDP: He describes Jonathan as eminently qualified, citing his track record and economic indices.
Daniel Woyengikuro, PDP’s National Financial Secretary: Praises Jonathan as the party’s national leader and a central figure in its strategy for zoning the presidency to the south.
Seyi Makinde, Oyo State Governor: A dynamic leader capable of bridging generational gaps, with Woyengikuro expressing support for his potential candidacy.
The Odds of Re-Election in 2027
The odds of Goodluck Jonathan joining the 2027 presidential race against President Bola Tinubu seem low. Patience Jonathan, Goodluck Jonathan’s wife, has explicitly ruled out the possibility of her husband contesting against President Tinubu, citing a longstanding relationship with him and his wife, Oluremi Tinubu. Instead, she expressed support for Tinubu’s re-election. However, in politics an hour is still a very long time to make a decision.
Key Points to Consider:
Jonathan’s Candidacy: Patience Jonathan has made it clear that her husband won’t run against Tinubu, despite speculation about his potential candidacy.
Northern Support: Some northern politicians might have considered backing Jonathan as a compromise candidate, given his perceived humility and commitment to peace. However, with Patience Jonathan’s statement, this seems unlikely.
Constitutional Limitation: Both Tinubu and Jonathan are constitutionally limited to a single term if elected again in 2027.
PDP’s Stance: The PDP had explored the possibility of backing Jonathan, but his wife’s statement suggests he won’t join the race.
Given these factors, President Tinubu’s re-election bid appears strong. Nevertheless, Nigerian politics is known for its unpredictability, and alliances can shift rapidly.
Conclusion
Goodluck Jonathan’s potential presidential run in 2027 has ignited intense debate about his eligibility and implications for Nigeria’s political landscape. It is obvious the APC are jittery as the PDP courts him and northern leaders express support; one question remains: will Jonathan accept the challenge and reshape Nigeria’s future?
